DAVAO CITY (MindaNews / 13 February) — The island of Luzon, home to 12 of 15 Philippine presidents, has 55.95% of the voting population nationwide, with Visayas and Mindanao accounting for the remaining 44.05%.
The combined Visayas-Mindanao voting population, however, is also smaller than the voting population of what is referred to as the Balance of Luzon (BL)
Records of the Commission on Elections (Comelec) show that as of November 2015, the country’s total voting population is 54,363,844.
Out of this number, MindaNews totaled the votes by island: Luzon has 30,417,790 or 55.95%; Mindanao has 12,629,265 or 23.23% and Visayas has 11,316,789 (20.82%).
In surveys, Luzon is broken into NCR (National Capital Region or Metro Manila) and BL. NCR has 6,253,249 registered voters, representing 11.50% of the voters nationwide while BL accounts for 24,164,541 or 44.45%.
The voting population in the Balance of Luzon (44.45%) is higher than the combined voting population of Mindanao and Visayas at 23,946,054 or 44.05%.
Among the five top contenders for the Presidency, two are from Luzon – Vice President Jejomar Binay and Senator Grace Poe; two from the Visayas – former Local Governments Secretary Mar Roxas and Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago; and the lone Mindanawon candidate is Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte.
At the start of the official campaign period on February 9, Binay launched his campaign in Mandaluyong City while Poe went to Plaza Miranda in Manila; Roxas was in his hometown in Roxas City; Santiago in her running mate Ferdinand Marcos, Jr’s Ilocos Norte while Duterte, standard bearer of the PDP-Laban, held his rally in Tondo, Manila.
The next day, Duterte was in Tuguegarao, Cagayan Valley the birthplace of Binay’s father.
In a statement, Duterte’s spokesperson Peter Lavina, said the decision to head straight to an ‘undisputed territory of an enemy’ at the onset of the official campaign period is a “strategy taken right from the book of the Art of War.”
“Going to Northern Luzon is crucial because it is where Duterte is least known and it is definitely the farthest to witness the flourishing of Davao,” he said.
Who’s leading where
The latest Pulse Asia survey on January 24 to 28 shows Poe leading the race nationwide with 30%, followed by Binay at 23% and Duterte and Roxas at 20% each.
Duterte has maintained his lead in Mindanao in all Pulse Asia surveys since March 2015 and this increased by 5 percentage points from 43% in the December 4 to 11 survey to 48% in January.
Poe also posted a 5% increase from 11% in December to 16% in January but Roxas registered an 8-percentage point increase from 13% to 21%. Binay on the other suffered a huge drop of 16 percentage points from 30% in December to 14% in January.
But while Duterte has about half of Mindanao’s 12.6 million votes, he has to catch up in other areas: he is at the bottom of the race in the Balance of Luzon, Visayas and in the E class; and in all seven categories – NCR, BL, Visayas, Mindanao, socio-economic classes ABC, D, and E – his percentage points went down except for Mindanao where he gained five percentage points.
In the National Capital Region which has 6.25 million votes, Poe and Binay are statistically tied for first place – Poe with 33% in January from 29% in December and Binay with 32% from 30%. Roxas maintained his 11% in December and January.
In a special Pulse Asia survey in November commissioned by “a private group that is supportive of Duterte’s candidacy,” Duterte got 34% followed by Poe’s 26%, Binay’s 22% and Roxas’ 11%.
Given the margin of error of +/- 6 in the NCR, Pulse Asia said the survey results show that Duterte, Poe and Binay were in a three-way tie.
From 34% voter preference for Duterte in November, this dropped to 27% in December and down to 16% in January. While Poe and Binay statistically tied for first place in the NCR in January, Duterte and Roxas were statistically tied for second place.
In the Balance of Luzon which has 24.2 million votes, Poe led with 39%, up from 29% in December, followed by Binay with 28% from 34%. Roxas maintained his 16% in both months while Duterte lost five more points from 13% in December to 8% in January.
In the Visayas which has 11.32 million votes, Roxas got 32% in January from 27% in December; followed by Binay with 28%, down from 34% in December; Poe with 26% from 15% and Duterte with 15%, down from 18%.
But with a margin of error of +/-5 in the Visayas and Mindanao, Poe, Binay and Poe are statistically tied for first place.
By classes
In the socioeconomic classes ABC nationwide, Duterte topped in December with 28% followed by Roxas (22%), Binay (20%) and Poe (19%). In January, Poe got 25% , Duterte 24%, Binay 21% and Roxas 20%.
In the D class, Binay led the December survey with 30% followed by Duterte (23%), Poe ( 22%) and Roxas (17%). In January, Poe led with 32% followed by Binay’s 22%, Duterte’s 21% and Roxas’ 19%.
In the E class, Binay led with 42% followed by Duterte’s 20%, Poe’s 19% and Roxas’ 15%. In January, Binay maintained his lead even as his rating dropped to 30%, followed by Poe’s 26%, Roxas’ 25% and Duterte’s 15%.
Vote-richest regions
MindaNews also checked on the vote-richest among the 18 regions in the country and based on Comelec records as of November 2015 these are:
- Region 4A (Calabarzon) ……………………………………….……..…. 7,619,272
- NCR (National Capital Region) ……………………………..….…… .6,253,249
- Region 3 (Central Luzon) ……………………………………….……… 6,056,392
- Region 7 (Central Visayas) …………………………………..………….3,590,044
- Region 5 (Bicol) ………………………………………………..……..…..…3,121,662
- Region 1 (Ilocos) ………………………………………………………….…2,950,775
- Region 8 (Eastern Visayas) ………………………..…………………….2,698,880
- Region 11 (Davao) ……………………………………………..……………2,659,704
- Region 6 (Western Visayas) …………………………………………….2,578,661
- Region 10 (Northern Mindanao) ………………………….…………. 2,541,331
- NIR (Negros Island Region) ………………………………….…….…..2,449,204
- Region 12 (Southwestern Mindanao or Soccksargen) …….…..2,189,642
- Region 9 (Zamboanga Peninsula) ……………………………..……..2,000,245
- Region 2 (Cagayan Valley) ……………………………………………….1,920,952
- ARMM (Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao) .…..……..1,691,250
- Region 4B (Mimaropa) ………………………………………………….…1,589,326
- Region 13 (Caraga) ………………………………………………….………1,547,093
- CAR (Cordillera Autonomous Region) ……………………….……… 906,162
TOTAL ………………………………………………………..… …54,363,844
Among the country’s 81 provinces and four NCR districts, the vote-richest is Cebu with 2.72 million, followed by the 2nd district of NCR with P2.03 M, 4th district NCR with 1.96 M; Cavite with 1.84 M, Negros Occidental with 1.66 M, Pangasinan with 1.7 M, Laguna with 1.68 M, Bulacan with 1.64 M, Batangas with 1.53 M and Rizal with 1.45 M. (Carolyn O. Arguillas / MindaNews)
