BONGAO, Tawi-Tawi (MindaNews / 2 July)—With the Basilan sorties done over the weekend, the BARMM Grand Coalition (BGC) has finally completed its initial provincial launch sorties. Early on, it was the ruling United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) who have had its provincial sorties.
BGC is composed of Al-Ittihad, SIAP, Salaam and BPP. At-Ittihad is headed by TESDA Director-General Suharto Mangudadatu and his wife Maguindanao del Sur Governor Bai Miriam Sangki-Mangudadatu, SIAP is the party of the incumbent Lanao del Sur Governor Bombit Alonto and headed by his son Vice Governor Mujam Alonto, Salaam is headed by Sulu patriarch Governor Abdusakur Tan, and BPP is headed by former ARMM Regional Governor and current Basilan Congressman Mujiv Hataman.
UBJP is the political arm of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), with its leaders serving as the Government of the Day in the BARMM headed by the MILF Chair Ahod Murad.
Both BGC and UBJP are vying for the 2025 Parliamentary Elections. One of the unique features of the 2025 regional elections is that it will be the first time BARMM residents will not be voting directly for the top regional post, that of the Chief Minister. In the defunct ARMM, residents voted directly for their regional governor and vice governor. This time, the parliament will elect the Chief Minister. This means that even though Sakur Tan has been groomed as the BGC’s pick for Chief Minister, his name will not be on the ballot. Instead, it will be their party that will be on the ballot.
This is the first time that electorates will also vote for a regional party. Aside from these two main parties, there are other parties, like the ISAMA, organized as a continuing advocacy of the Sama professionals for equitable ethnic representation. It has since embraced promoting minority rights as its platform of government.
In the previous ARMM, there were legislative districts where constituents could vote for their top three assembly people. This time, the parliamentary district will only vote for one representative to the parliament. While Sulu gained four parliamentary districts compared with three for Basilan and Tawi-Tawi, Sulu lost two seats compared to the ARMM legislative districts where it had six seats. Basilan and Tawi-Tawi’s demand for an additional seat each fell on deaf ears or as some proponents would say, constraint by the limitation set by the Bangsamoro Organic Law (BOL).
In the final count, how the votes will be treated matters as well. There will be an element of List Proportional Representation (LPR) where regional parties submit their nominees. There will also be an element of Mixed-Member Proportional Representation (MMP), allowing voters to cast two votes: one for a regional party and another for a candidate in the parliamentary district. Let us see what the final mix will be.
Whichever party has the majority votes in the regional parliament will lead the BARMM government. If it is a majority government, the ministerial positions and roles will be simply divided among its party leaders.
Where there is no clear majority for any party, the direction will be for parties to undertake coalition-building to form a majority coalition.
The “majority rule” is essential to pass legislation and form a stable government. Coalition building is about negotiations, compromises, and strategic alignments between parties with similar or complementary political agendas. In turn, parties of the coalition government negotiate policy positions, ministerial appointments, and other government roles.
What we have seen so far is the pre-election coalition of the BGC. Will it be an outright majority for any of the two dominant parties, or will it be a coalition government for the first BARMM parliament? We shall see soon.
Aside from the majority coalition, there will also be a minority coalition, the latter to serve as the shadow government tasked with scrutinizing and challenging the work of the government of the day, thereby promoting accountability and alternative views to proposed legislations and policies. The shadow government is perhaps the least known feature of the parliamentary system. It does require political maturity and competence to perform the roles of the Leader of the Opposition, Shadow Ministers, Shadow Cabinet, Shadow Parliamentary Secretaries and Shadow Committees. How and will these take shape based on the idealism of the Westminster Model or will we in the BARMM adapt our own?
Let us not forget that one of the reasons for the adoption of the parliamentary system and the creation of the Office of the Wali was to shield regional politics from what Moros perceived as the unnecessary political interference of Malacañang in determining their own leaders. The allegation of a Lanao mayor about an emergent interference is a case worth watching. Have we shielded the Moro people’s will from this unnecessary interference or have we allowed for new form of interference to take shape? As we approach the 2025 midterm elections, the anticipation and political maneuvering within BARMM signal a transformative moment for the region’s governance and futures, and its people’s political maturity.
(MindaViews is the opinion section of MindaNews. Noor Saada is a Tausug of mixed ancestry—born in Jolo, Sulu, grew up in Tawi-Tawi, studied in Zamboanga and worked in Davao, Makati and Cotabato. He is a development worker and peace advocate, former Assistant Regional Secretary of the Department of Education in the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, currently working as an independent consultant and is a member of an insider-mediation group that aims to promote intra-Moro dialogue.)