A woman farmer shows the black bugs that have infested her drought-stricken rice farm in Datu Saudi Ampatuan, Maguindanao on 12 March 2019. MindaNews file photo by FERDINANDH CABRERA
MALAYBALAY CITY (MindaNews / 12 December) – Seventy-seven percent of the country could experience a dry spell or drought by May 2024 due to the El Niño phenomenon, a climatologist at the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said Tuesday.
In the past few months, the Mindanao provinces of Maguindanao and Basilan have already felt the dry spell, according to the state weather bureau.
In an interview on Teleradyo Serbisyo of ABS-CBN News, Analiza Solis, chief of the Pagasa climate monitoring and prediction section, said they expect a large reduction in rainfall in the first two quarters of 2024.
Solis said it is a strong El Niño and 2024 could be among the top 10 warmest years in the country on record.
She, however, said the country’s dams are well-managed and would hopefully remain at normal levels until the end of this month to avert a water crisis next year.
In an advisory on December 6, Pagasa said a strong El Niño is present in the tropical Pacific and further intensified, nearing its peak in the coming months, as sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) have reached more than 1.5⁰C.
Majority of global climate models suggest that El Niño will likely persist until the second quarter of 2024, the advisory said.
“El Niño increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall conditions, which could bring negative impacts (such as dry spells and droughts) in some areas of the country which will likely be manifested during the last quarter of the year and unto the first quarter of next year.
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This may adversely affect the different climate-sensitive sectors such as the water resources, agriculture, energy, health, public safety and other key sectors of the country,” it added.
Pagasa defines drought as three consecutive months of way below normal rainfall (60 percent reduction from average) or five consecutive months of below normal rainfall condition (21 percent to 60 percent reduction from average).
Dry spell means three consecutive months of below normal rainfall (21 percent to 60 percent reduction from average) or two months of consecutive way below normal rainfall (more than 60 percent reduction from average).
Pagasa said that in November a few provinces in Mindanao recorded way below to below normal rainfall conditions while Basilan and Maguindanao experienced meteorological dry spell (three consecutive months of below normal rainfall conditions) over the past five months.
Also in November, three Pagasa stations recorded new maximum temperature extremes: Clark, Pampanga station on November 6 (34.8⁰C), Malaybalay City station on November 14 (35.0⁰C), and Zamboanga City station on November 1 (37.4⁰C). (MindaNews)
