DAVAO CITY (MindaNews / 15 April) – Voters’ preference for presidential candidate and survey frontrunner Ferdinand Marcos Jr. dropped by four percentage points nationwide, from 60% in February to 56% in March but his biggest drop among 17 regions nationwide is 19 percentage points – from 84% to 65% — in Mindanao’s Davao region, the turf of his running mate, Davao City mayor and Presidential daughter Sara Duterte, Pulse Asia’s survey results in February and March show.
Voters’ preference for Mayor Duterte also suffered the same drop of 19 percentage points, from 95 in February to 76 in March in her own Davao region, also her biggest drop among 17 regions nationwide. Duterte also lost eight percentage points in Region 10 or Northern Mindanao, from 92 in February to 84 in March, but gained from 7 to 14 percentage points in the four other regions of Mindanao.
Vice President Leni Robredo ranked a poor second with 24% compared to Marcos’ 56% but she gained nine percentage points nationwide from 15 in February to 24 in March. In Mindanao, Robredo earned her biggest gain of 18 percentage points (from 2 to 20) in Davao, the Duterte-influenced region that voted Senator Alan Peter Cayetano for Vice President in 2016, gave Marcos the second spot and Robredo the poor third.
Overall, in Mindanao, Marcos lost six percentage points (from 68 to 62) while Robredo gained nine percentage points (from 5 to 14).
Pulse Asia’s Pulso ng Bayan survey was conducted on February 18 to 23 and the Ulat ng Bayan survey on March 17 to 21, each using face-to-face interviews with 2,400 representative adults 18 years old and above. The surveys have a +/- 2% error margin at the 95% confidence level. Pulse Asia says subnational estimates for each of the geographic areas covered in the survey — Metro Manila, Balance of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao — have a +/- 4% error margin, also at 95% confidence level.
Davao region has 3.2 million registered voters, as of the December 2021 records of the Commission on Election, accounting for the largest chunk of Mindanao’s 15.7 million votes. Mindanao, which has 27 provinces and 33 cities, accounts for 23.8% of the country’s 65.7 million voters.
Significant, nearly significant
MindaNews asked Pulse Asia President Dr. Ronald Holmes on the numbers in the Davao region. His reply: “Have supporters of Robredo campaigned in the region? What about appearances in local TV and radio stations? Hard to provide an explanation as I also don’t know what had occurred there before the survey.”
“As to the drop of Marcos and Duterte, does this show less than firm support among Davao voters?” Holmes asked.
In an e-mailed response to a follow-up question, Holmes said it should be noted that the margin of error from survey to survey for Region 11 is +/- 18.3 percentage points. “The margin of error tells us how many percentage points we may be off from the real value given that we conduct a representative survey rather than cover the entire population. In this case, when we say that the margin of error from survey to survey for Region 11 is plus or minus 18.3%, the voting support for the candidates should change beyond this margin of error to call it significant. Thus, BBM (Marcos) and Sara’s (Duterte) decline of 19 percentage points in voting support is significant, Leni’s increase of 18 percentage points is marginal (nearly significant).”
During the surveys in February and March, neither survey frontrunner Marcos Jr. nor Robredo, had visited the Davao region since the campaign period started on February 8. The two candidates barnstormed the region after March 21.
But there were two Presidential and two vice presidential debates between the survey dates of February 18 to 23 and March 17 to 21: CNN on February 27 and Comelec’s PiliPinas Debates on March 19 for the presidential candidates and for the vice presidential bets, CNN on February 26 and Comelec’s on March 20.
Marcos was absent in both CNN and Comelec debates; Robredo was present in both. Mayor Duterte was a no-show in the two vice presidential debates.
Robredo’s supporters in Mindanao as well as in the Davao region where the Dutertes are based, have been very active online and offline. In Davao City, which has nearly a million voters (992,538), more volunteers joined after the “Ronda ng Pag-asa” motorcade on February 9, Day 2 of the national campaign.
Memen Lauzon-Gatmaytan of the Davao for Leni at Kiko movement, told MindaNews that what could have contributed to Robredo’s 18% increase in voter preference in the Davao region are “the presence of volunteers groups and high visibility both online and offline.”
A motorcade dubbed as “Ronda ng Pagasa” by suppporters of presidential candidate Leni Robredo and running mate Kiko Pangilinan passes by the city hall of Davao on Wednesday (9 February 2022). MindaNews photo by MANMAN DEJETO
“I noticed after our last motorcade when we got very high traction, nag-shoot up ang membership application both in Davao for Leni at Kiko and Youth for Leni. Dumami ang walk in donors and silent supporters,” she said.
The Davao for Leni Facebook page had some 32,000 followers on February 14. As of April 15, it has 62,354. The Youth for Leni in Davao, according to Rose Quimod of the Ateneo de Davao University, initially started with five in December. As of mid-April, they are now at least 300 and still counting, their main event this month their house-to-house, person-to-person campaign in the different barangays.
Motorcades would have been a major help in reaching out to the different barangays but even as the Commission on Elections allows it, Mayor Duterte in an Executive Order on March 7 banned “all political caravans and motorcades” in the city, due to the “continuing increase of fuel costs, the inconvenience of the traffic jams it will create and the ongoing public want due to the economic losses from the pandemic coupled with the rising prices of basic commodities.”
Mindanao sorties, Davao region sorties
Robredo’s first Mindanao sortie was on February 22 and 23 in Northern Mindanao’s provinces and cities. She returned to barnstorm other areas in Mindanao – in the Caraga region on March 8 and 9, in Region 12 on March 15, Cotabato City and Basilan on March 16 and Zamboanga on March 17 and her Davao region sortie on March 24 while Marcos’ first Mindanao sortie started only on March 27 in Koronadal City in South Cotabato, Day 48 of the 90-day national campaign.
Vice President Leni Robredo addresses her supporters at the Davao del Sur Coliseum in Digos City on 24 March 2022. MindaNews photo by GREGORIO C. BUENO
In the Davao region, Robredo graced a morning rally in Digos City in Davao del Sur on March 24 after which she flew to Tagum City in Davao del Norte for a press conference where former House Speaker Pantaleon Alvarez, Jr., president of the Aksyon Demokratiko, announced they were supporting Robredo instead of Panfilo Lacson. Just before that press conference, Lacson resigned as party chair.
Robredo returned to Mindanao for rallies in Lanao del Norte on March 31 and in Lanao del Sur, capped by a rally in Marawi City on April 1. She also attended a rally in Tagum City on April 7.
Marcos’ Davao region sortie was on March 30 with rallies in Carmen, Davao del Norte, Pantukan in Davao de Oro and Digos City in Davao del Sur. Marcos’ other rallies in Mindanao were in Koronadal on March 27; Carmen in North Cotabato, Buluan in Maguindanao and Isulan in Sultan Kudarat on March 28; in Zamboanga on March 29; and in Marawi and Bukidnon on March 31.
Supporters reach out for a handshake with former Senator and Presidential candidate Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in Pantukan, Davao de Oro on 30 March 2022. MindaNews photo by GREGORIO BUENO
“We will try our best to deliver for Bongbong Marcos in Davao region and based on our survey, he is doing well and we can do more for him,” Mayor Duterte told reporters at the sidelines of the rally in Carmen, Davao del Norte on March 30. She did not say which survey. (Pulse Asia released its March survey on April 6).
In the evening, at the rally in Digos City, Davao del Sur, Duterte vowed: “Tayong mga Bisaya,mangangako na mananalo ang Ilocano dito sa ating lugar (We, the Bisaya, promise that the Ilocano will win here in our area), referring to Marcos, an Ilocano.
Mayor Duterte heads the regional party, Hugpong ng Pagbabago which fielded candidates in the five-province Davao region. In 2019, the party won in three provinces (Davao de Oro, Davao Occidental and Davao Oriental) two of them unopposed (de Oro and Oriental). It lost in Davao del Sur and Davao del Norte. Then Davao del Norte Governor Anthony del Rosario lost to Alvarez in the 1stcongressional district while his brother, Rodney, lost his gubernatorial bid to Alvarez’ partymate, neophyte politician Edwin Jubahib. In Davao del Sur, Digos City Mayor Joseph Penas, the HnP candidate for Governor lost to reelectionist Governor Douglas Cagas.
Gains and losses in Mindanao
Overall, Marcos lost four percentage points nationwide from 60% in February to 56% in March. In Mindanao, he lost 12 percentage points in the Zamboanga region or Region 9 (from 54 to 42); eight in Northern Mindanao or Region10, (from 79 to 71), 19 in the Davao region or Region 11 (from 84 to 65) and four in Region 12 or what is popularly referred to as Soccsksargen (from 76 to 72) but gained five in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao or BARMM (from 47 to 52) and 13 in the Caraga region (from 58 to 71).
Robredo gained 9 percentage points nationwide, from 15 to 24. In Mindanao, she gained in all regions: six in Zamboanga (from 12 to 18), 13 in Northern Mindanao (from 3 to 16), 18 in Davao region (from 2 to 20), two in Region 12 (from 1 to 3), two in the BARMM (from 9 to 11) and eight in Caraga (from 6 to 14).
Manila Mayor Francisco “Isko Moreno” Domagoso, lost two percentage points nationwide, from 10 in February to eight in March. In Mindanao, he lost two percentage points in Region 10 (from 8 to 6), six in the BARMM (26 to 20), and five in Caraga (from 8 to 3) but gained 12 percentage points in the Zamboanga region (from 5 to 17), one in the Davao region (from 0 to 1) and 11 in Region 12 (from 0 to 11).
Senator and world boxing icon Emmanuel Pacquiao also lost two percentage points nationwide, from 8 in February to 6 in March. In Mindanao, he lost one percentage point in the Zamboanga region (21 to 20), two in Northern Mindanao (9 to 7), seven in his home region, Region 12 (17 to 10), three in the BARMM (11 to 8), 15 in Caraga 15 (from 27 to 12) but gained three percentage points in the Davao region (10 to 13).
Senator Panfilo Lacson was steady nationwide (2% in February and 2% in March). In Mindanao, it was also steady in Region 9 (2 and 2), Region 10 (0 and 0), and Region 12 (3 and 3) but dropped by three percentage points in the Davao region (4 to 1), the BARMM (4 to 0) and Caraga (1 to 0).
RoSa Mindanao, Partido Reporma’s switch
In the 2016 vice presidential race, Robredo won in 14 Mindanao provinces and 16 cities, Marcos in seven provinces and seven cities, and Cayetano, running mate of the elected President, Rodrigo Duterte, in six provinces and 10 cities (five of these provinces and six of these cities in the Davao region).
Marcos won in the entire Region 12 (Soccskargen) in 2016. It was also in this region, at the national convention of the Partido Federal ng Pilipinas (PFP) in September 2021 where Marcos Jr. was nominated to be its standard bearer. He became a member and chair of the PFP in October, just before filing his certificate of candidacy for President.
By the time Marcos came for his first Mindanao sortie on March 27, two major developments had happened in Mindanao within the week: the launching in Cagayan de Oro City on March 21 of RoSa Mindanao for Robredo-Sara Duterte, and on March 24, the declaration of support for Robredo by Alvarez, former House Speaker and Partido Reporma president, in Davao del Norte.
Davao del Norte has 690,248 voters; Zamboanga City has 445,240 and Cagayan de Oro has 372,293.
Rep. Joey Saceda (2nd district, Albay, white shirt), Zamboanga City Mayor Beng Climaco, and Rep. Rufus Rodriguez ( 2nd district, Cagayan de Oro) launched the ROSA movement adopting Vice President Leni Robredo for president and Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte for vice president during a press conference in Cagayan de Oro City on Monday, 21 March 2022. MindaNews photo by FROILAN GALLARDO
“I’m confident enough that his rating in Mindanao will not go down,” South Cotabato Governor and PFP President Reynaldo Tamayo told MindaNews hours after RoSa Mindanao was launched in Cagayan de Oro City by Zamboanga City Mayor Ma. Isabelle Climaco and Cagayan de Oro City 2nddistrict Rep. Rufus Rodriguez, with RoSa national convener Joey Salceda, Representative of the 2nddistrict of Albay.
Tamayo said he was also confident that Marcos’ numbers in Mindanao would not be reduced despite Alvarez’ support for Robredo instead of Lacson. Alvarez, however, maintained support for Lacson’s running mate, Senate President Tito Sotto.
South Cotabato has 975,541 voters.
Around the same time Marcos was holding a rally in South Cotabato, another development that could affect Marcos’ vote in Mindanao occurred: 2nd district Representative Juliette Uy, a member of an influential political clan in Misamis Oriental, declared support for Robredo and Duterte.
Uy, who is running for governor under the National Unity Party which was reported to have expressed support for Marcos, is the second candidate for governor of Misamis Oriental to declare support for Robredo. Two days earlier on Day 1 of the local campaign, Oscar Moreno, who is completing his third term as mayor of Cagayan de Oro City and is seeking to return to the gubernatorial post he held from 2004 to 2013, declared support for Robredo and running mate, Senator Francis Pangilinan, who was present at the proclamation rally in his hometown in Balingasag.
Misamis Oriental has 1,039,709 registered voters.
Vice President, 2022
In the 2022 vice presidential race, voters’ preference nationwide for Marcos’ running mate, Mayor Duterte, increased by only three percentage points from 53 in February to 56 in March. In Mindanao, she lost eight percentage points in Northern Mindanao (from 92 to 84), 19 in the Davao region (from 95 to 76) but gained nine percentage points in Zamboanga region (from 65 to 74), 12 in Region 12 (from 85 to 97), 14 in the BARMM (67 to 81) and seven in the Caraga region (from 80 to 87).
Lacson’s running mate, Senate President Tito Sotto, lost four percentage points nationwide, from 24 to 20. In Mindanao, he lost seven in the Zamboanga region (from 21 to 14), seven in Region 12 (from 9 to 2), 12 in the BARMM (from 13 to 1) but gained four in Northern Mindanao (from four to eight), 10 in Davao region (from 5 to 15), and two in the Caraga region (from 4 to 6).
Robredo’s running mate, Senator Pangilinan, gained four percentage points nationwide, from 11 in February to 15 in March. In Mindanao, he lost one percentage point in Zamboanga region (from 8 to 7), four in Region 12 (from four to zero), but gained four in Northern Mindanao (2 to 6), three in the Davao region (0 to 3), nine in the BARMM (from 2 to 11) and two in Caraga (from 7 to 9).
Domagoso’s running mate, Dr. Willie Ong, lost three percentage points nationwide, from 8 in February to 5 in March. In Mindanao, he lost 3 in the Zamboanga region (from 5 to 2), one in Region 12 (from 1 to 0), eight in Caraga (from 9 to 1), was steady in Northern Mindanao (2 and 2) and the Davao region (0 and 0), and gained 1 in the BARMM (from 3 to 4).
Pacquiao’s running mate, Buhay partylist Rep Lito Atienza, was also steady at 1% in both February and March surveys nationwide. In Mindanao, he lost one percentage point in the home region of Pacquiao (from 1 to 0) and 13 in the BARMM (from 15 to 2). It was steady in Northern Mindanao (0 and 0) and Caraga (0 and 0) but gained six in the Davao region (from 0 to 6).
Moreno is 2nd choice for President
If the respondents’ original choice for president does not pursue his/her candidacy for whatever reason, Pulse Asia’s March survey says 23% of likely voters nationwide would instead vote for Moreno, 13% each for Lacson and Pacquiao, and 10% for Robredo. But Pulse Asia noted that “interestingly, 28% of likely voters do not have an alternative candidate for president” while “indecision regarding their second choice for the post is expressed by 3% of likely voters.”
In Mindanao, Moreno is still the second choice (23% of likely voters), but Pacquiao is second with 20%, Lacson with 13% and Robredo with 12%.
But Pulse Asia noted that it is only Pacquiao “who experiences a notable movement in second-choice voting figures between February 2022 and March 2022 – a 14-percentage point improvement in Class E.”
“Not reciprocal”
A review of previous Pulse Asia surveys, shows that from December 2020 to September 2021 or just before the October 8, 2021 deadline for filing of certificates of candidacy (COCs), preference for Marcos among voters in Mindanao was single-digit, between 4% and 8%. He was second choice for President after Sara Duterte during this period.
Duterte as first choice topped the geographical areas overall, particularly in Visayas and Mindanao while second choice Marcos topped in Luzon – in both the National Capital Region and the Balance of Luzon.
Marcos’ numbers in Mindanao significantly improved after the filing of COCs and the announcement of the Marcos-Duterte tandem.
“Clearly it was Sara who pulled him up in Mindanao,” an election campaign strategist told MindaNews. The strategist noted that while the percentage increase in voter preference for Marcos in Mindanao was high, this was “not reciprocal” as there is only a slight increase in voter preference for Sara in Luzon.
From his highest of 8% in Mindanao in September last year, voter preference for Marcos in Mindanao rose to 66% in January 2022, 68% in February and 62% in March. (Carolyn O. Arguillas / MindaNews)
