NAAWAN, Misamis Oriental (MindaNews / 24 June) — The Israel-Iran conflict has escalated to no immediate foreseeable end because the US has joined the fray. The conflict was the long-awaited opportunity for the US to execute its ultimate goal of incapacitating Iran’s race to be a nuclear power. The US military dropped six “bunker buster” bombs on Iran’s Fordow nuclear enrichment plant Saturday night and on two other key sites. Satellite images show how part of the mountain protecting the facility was completely obliterated.
The air strikes were celebrated as a great triumph.
With most of its nuclear scientists were, accordingly, killed and their workstations devastated, the “rogue” state is, accordingly thrown back to near zero starting point in its nuclear program.
Some observers noted massive transport movements in said targeted sites days before the bombing, and the damage would not be in that magnitude as claimed.
Iran’s immediate response was the closing of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s parliament voted to close the Strait of Hormuz, the vital shipping channel through which around 20% of the world’s daily oil flows.
The move, which could block $1 billion in oil shipments per day, has profound consequences for the global economy, disrupting international trade and ratcheting up oil prices.
For instance, Brent crude oil, the international standard, jumped 3.9% to $80 a barrel on Sunday, June 22, while US crude rose 4.3% to $77 a barrel.
The closure resolution of the Iranian Parliament will go into effect pending a final decision by Iran’s Supreme Council.
Would Iran’s Supreme National Council confirm the resolution of the Parliament?
The Supreme National Security Council is still weighing the risks. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz could also inflate the cost of goods and services worldwide; and hit some of the world’s biggest economies, including China, India, and Japan, which are among the top importers of crude oil passing through the strait. Moreover, the bulk of all oil exported by the regional petro giants, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, all travel through this narrow waterway. Thus, Iran will create more enemies than friends and sympathizers to its cause.
But can Iran implement a closure? It is next to impossible. Iran, in this regard, would appear simply as a paper tiger. Any attempts by its navy to bar entry to the strait would likely be met by a strong response.
Ships with the US Fifth Fleet, along with other Western navies, are patrolling the area at all times to secure the interest of their country.
Nonetheless, the paper tiger, proved it has claws by launching ballistic missiles at the biggest US military base in Qatar over the weekend.
So far, the conflict is at a stalemate.
(MindaViews is the opinion section of MindaNews. William R. Adan, Ph.D., is retired professor and former chancellor of Mindanao State University at Naawan, Misamis Oriental.)
