Our national security policy has always been anchored on the unwavering belief that the United States (US) will meet their commitments under the Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT). Immediately after it became apparent that Donald Trump had won the election, President Bongbong Marcos, his national security team as well as US security and diplomatic officials made public assurances that this commitment remain “ironclad”.
This steadfast dependence on the US is deeply ingrained in how we conceptualize national security and has fostered complacency amongst our political leaders with regard to national defense. According to a working paper from the Ateneo Policy Center titled, “Toward Increased and Stable Investments in National Security in the Philippines”:
“Policymakers tacitly accepted that with the US presence in the country, coupled with the PH-US Mutual Defense Treaty; America has assumed the role of our security guarantor against a potential external adversary.”
But given Trump’s unpredictability and “America First” mindset, maybe we should now be preparing for a scenario where the US does not fulfil its obligations under the MDT. It is definitely possible that a Trump administration will also be “transactional” when it comes to defense alliances. In fact, he has consistently maintained that countries must pay the US for its defense assistance.
With Trump at the helm now, it is really not farfetched to see the US becoming like Mang Jose of that classic Parokya ni Edgar song. The Americans will transform into “Ang superhero na pwedeng arkilahin”. And their mighty military becomes “parang si Daimos din ngunit pagkatapos ay bigla kang sisingilin.” Certainly a laughable thought now, but if it turns out to be true, we certainly would not be getting the last laugh.
Levity aside though, the urgency of building a strong military is an obvious given due to our troubles in the West Philippine Sea. But over-reliance on our former colonial master has made establishing a self-reliant defense force extremely challenging. Pertinently, the Ateneo Policy Center paper also asserts that:
“The departure of the American forces revealed the Philippines’ poor external defense capability. This was underscored when the Chinese took over the Philippine-occupied Mischief Reef in 1995, which compelled President Fidel Ramos to push for Republic Act 7898 or the AFP Modernization Act.”
The modernization of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) is an ongoing project. But this initiative has been significantly slowed down by economic crises and recurring political turmoil. Significantly, President Bongbong Marcos in his keynote address at the Shangri-la Dialogue in Singapore last May boldly declared:
“Under our Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept, we shall develop our capacity to project our forces into areas where we must, by constitutional duty and by legal right, protect our interests and preserve our patrimony.”
Obviously, as a maritime nation we need to zealously safeguard our vast marine wealth. Hence, it only makes sense to have a strong maritime defense force. And we need to repel invaders not just in the West Philippine Sea. We must diligently protect the entire archipelago.
Correspondingly, any plans of decreasing the budget for the AFP Modernization program must be discouraged. But for the upgrading process to really take a massive step forward, graft and corruption in the military must be confronted directly. It became so rife that the late Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago sarcastically rebranded the AFP as “predators of the people and the State” in a privilege speech.
Unfortunately, the long list of government corruption scandals just naturally engenders fear that the funds for national security will be compromised. And even though corruption in the military may no longer be as rampant as it was during the administration of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, severe anxiety still hounds the AFP modernization program. Both media and civil society play a huge part in allaying this grave public concern.
In sum, it is very clear that our collective ambition must be to reach a point where we can confidently defend ourselves without relying on anybody else. But it is undeniable as well that achieving this level of confidence involves a long and arduous process. The volatility of geopolitics, however, compels us to take the first step. And that may be accepting the truth that the word “ironclad” comes with a steep price and a shelf life.
(MindaViews is the opinion section of MindaNews. Michael Henry Yusingco, LL.M is a law lecturer, policy analyst and constitutionalist.)